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  1. #1
    Member juancarlosb
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    This is a blog post. To read the original post, please click here »

    Como ha posteado Sam en el wall de Edward, las cuentas públicas de Irlanda comienzan a ofrecer una imagen aterradora, con un déficit que puede terminar este eño en el 20% del PIB, debido a las pérdidas de los bancos nacionalizados.En el primer trimestre del 2010 se anunció un potente crecimiento de su economía, nada menos que un 2.7% respecto al trimestre anterior, pero si descontáramos el enorme déficit público y la evolución de la deuda externa nos encontraríamos con que realmente ese crecimiento no ha sido tal, sino simplemente endeudamiento.El PIB es aproximadamente 180.000 millones, un 2.7% de eso son unos 5.000 millones.Pero si nos vamos a los datos de deuda nos daremos cuenta de cual ha sido la realidad: en el primer trimestre la deuda bruta de Irlanda ha crecido desde 1.611 millones hasta 1.670 millones (sí, unas 9 veces su PIB), y su deuda neta desde 110.000 millones hasta 130.000 millones.Analizando el incremento de la deuda vemos que la mayor parte ha sido endeudamiento del estado (7.000 millones neto), los instrumentos de deuda distintos de bonos y préstamos bancarios y la vuelta de la inversión extranjera, a corto y a largo plazo.

    Veamos la relación entre la NIIP (Net International Investment Position) y su cecimiento (en % PIB del trimestre):

    III 09:

    -NIIP -4%

    -PIB -0.2%

    IV 09:

    -NIIP -36%

    -PIB -2.7%

    I 10:

    -NIIP +48%

    -PIB +2.7

    Es decir, que se observa una extraordinaria dependencia del PIB respecto a la evolución de deuda exterior.

    Los mercados, a pesar de la buena evolución en el primer trimestre, comienzan a estar realmente asustados de la evolución de las cuentas públicas del país, por lo que estimo que la intervención del BCE tendrá que ser mucho más drástica si no se quiere provocar una nueva huida de la inversión extranjera y un nuevo desplome de la economía irlandesa.


  2. #2
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Tal y como desarrollan los siguientes artículos, Irlanda -que se ha posicionado como el alumno disciplinado de los PIIGS- está mostrando de manera elocuente y hasta dramática los adversos efectos de las políticas de auteridad en un momento en que el crecimiento ni está... ni se le espera.


    Ireland in Decline, Or, What Austerity Looks Like

    By Marshall Auerback

    ireland-200Governments are increasingly getting bullied into adopting austerity measures, apparently thinking it will help their economies grow. A number of us who oppose this approach suspect that the austerity measures now being demanded (and implemented) will undermine growth, and when growth finally returns it will be tepid as a result of other factors unrelated to the austerity. In the meantime, there will be massive casualties among the poor and disadvantaged. Ireland is exhibit A.

    In April 2009, the Irish government forecasted a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7.7 percent in 2009, and a contraction of 2.9 percent next year, before returning to growth of 2.7 percent in 2011. It had originally projected GDP to shrink by 6.75 percent. There is no sign of growth on the horizon.

    “Fiscal adjustment” (as the weasels euphemistically call it now) does not generate growth. It comes WITH growth. The raison d’etre of fiscal policy is to support growth when private spending is undermining it, and to constrain growth when private spending is supporting it. With high unemployment, high public deficits are inevitable. The only choice is between an active deficit, incurred by putting people to work or otherwise serving national needs — such as providing a decent retirement and health care to the aged — and a passive deficit, incurred because tax revenues necessarily fail to cover public spending at high unemployment. Cutting public spending or raising taxes, now or in the future, by any amount, cannot reduce a deficit due to high unemployment. The only fiscal effect is to convert an active deficit into a passive one — with disastrous economic and social effects...."

    In Ireland, a Picture of the High Cost of Austerity

    Published: June 28, 2010

    DUBLIN — As Europe’s major economies focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland. But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight.

    Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

    “When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,” said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland. “A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

    Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized. Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working. Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession.

  3. #3
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Más sobre la situación en Irlanda... en concreto sobre las vencimientos que afrontan sus bancos. La ventanilla del BCE va a tener cola en las próximas semanas...


    Ireland shakes, rattles and rolls

    Posted by Tracy Alloway on Aug 16 09:08.

    Last week was not the best for Ireland.

    The ‘I’ in, err, SGIP, saw the first major blip in its sovereign spreads since the European banking stress tests, as Bank of Ireland reported a(nother) loss, Anglo Irish Bank got a(nother) €10bn in government support, and Ireland’s finances suffered a(nother) corresponding blow.

    And then there’s the below — the imminent arrival of Ireland’s very own bank funding cliff:

    That’s courtesy of Nomura, and it shows the coming expiration of Ireland’s bank guarantee programmes, the unimaginatively-named Eligible Liabilities Guarantee and the Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Scheme. The second of these is slated to come to an end in September, while the first has been extended to the end of this year, but only for debt over three months in duration.

    That still leaves plenty of shorter-term debt that will be without a state guarantee come September — which is the big red line you see in the above chart. Ireland’s banks will either have to fund themselves in what has become a two-tiered interbank European market, or go cap in hand to the ECB.

    No surprise then, that plenty of them are lobbying for the guarantees to be fully extended.
    Y aquí vemos el castigo que están recibiendo los bancos irlandeses en la bolsa...


  4. #4
    Junior Member midway
    Fecha de ingreso
    15 Aug, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    zona cero de la zona cero two

  5. #5
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Y más sobre Irlanda... CD's subiendo como la espuma...


    The CDS on Ireland's sovereign debt has widened dramatically this morning as a result of expanding concerns over the country's banking sector.

    Ireland's CDS is now at its highest level since March of 2009, crossing the 300 bps barrier .

  6. #6
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda


    Ireland can withstand the euro's ordeal by fire, but can Southern Europe?

    (...)Unlike other GIIPS (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain), Ireland has an open economy geared to global trade. It has at least a sporting chance of clawing its way out of a horrendous eurozone trap. It can reasonably hope that exports will slowly offset the collapse of domestic demand induced by a 13pc cut in public wages and the most draconian deflation measures since the creation of the Republic.

    It has the flexibility to survive the EU’s hairshirt regime of "internal devaluation" - Laval deflation, to call it by an uglier name - aimed at regaining the 20pc-30pc in labour competitiveness thrown away by amateurish GIIPS leaders who never understood the implications of a currency union. Ireland can perhaps hope to carry out further spending cuts planned for late 2010 and yet again in 2011 without crashing into an irreversible debt-deflation spiral.

    "Ireland can perhaps hope to carry out further spending cuts without crashing into an irreversible
    debt-deflation spiral"

    Certainly, the Irish people have shown Scandinavian cohesion. Dublin has seen no riots, and nothing like the terrorist acts against government officials in Greece.

    "There is a lot anger and a lot of fear: fear is proving larger," said Paul Sweeney, a life-long labour activist and now Economic Adviser to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions. "For once we are keeping our hot tempers under control. The government will learn at the next election that revenge is a dish best served cold."

    Fergal O’Brien, from the Irish Business and Employers Confederation, said a quarter of Ireland’s private companies have cut wages, by 12pc on average. Dublin rents have halved. "Ireland has become a much cheaper place to do business. It costs 25pc less now than three years ago to set up a new enterprise," he said.

    One begins to discern a way out of calamity short of EMU exit, an option too traumatic to contemplate seriously and in Ireland’s case too tied up with the need to keep a distance from Britain’s clammy embrace. And yet, and yet, austerity is not making any appreciable dent on borrowing needs. The deficit will be 18.7pc of GDP this year. If you strip out bail-out costs for Anglo Irish, it is still stuck at around 12pc.

    "We are chasing our tail," said Sean Sherlock, a Dail member for Ireland’s Labour Party. "There is a dangerous process at work where job losses are making it harder to cut the deficit. We are seeing emigration of Irish nationals once again to Australia, Canada and the US."

    Unemployment reached 13.7pc in July, eating into the tax base. Income tax revenue was down 9pc from a year ago. Ireland’s internal economy (GNP) has shrunk by 20pc in nominal terms -- part deflation, part recession -- as the debt stock rises. The IMF expects public debt to rise to 96pc of GDP by the end of next year. The candle is burning at both ends. Such is the deflation curse, all too familiar to any student of debt dynamics in the 1930s.

    This pattern of sticky deficits, declining tax revenues, and recoveries falling short of "escape velocity" is visible across the eurozone’s arc of debt. Traders say fear of fresh bank woes have caused sovereign bond spreads to spike to crisis levels yet again. I suspect there is a deeper and more pervasive angst that the EU’s strategy is unworkable as designed, and that the EU’s €440bn bail-out fund relies on a string of assumptions that are not entirely credible, notably that Italy would remain serenly untouched by contagion and able to fund a simultaneous bail-out for Spain and Portugal if ever needed. The Stability Facility has bluff written all over it.

    In Greece, meanwhile, the slump is accelerating. The economy contracted 1.5pc in the second quarter. Unemployment rose to 12pc. "The problems have not gone away, the cracks have just been papered over," said Gary Jenkins from Evolution Securities.

    "The problems have not gone away,
    the cracks have just been papered over"

    - Gary Jenkins, Evolution Securities

    The EU and the IMF have praised Greece for a "strong start", as well they might: they are dictating the policy; their own credibility is on line. It does not mean that any sane observer should believe them. The reality is that tax revenue is €770m short of target so far this year, with the worst deterioration in July when receipts dropped 7pc from a year before.

    Or as the IMF stated in its latest report on Greece: "since the economy is relatively closed, the sharp cutbacks in public spending are beginning to affect activity without a strong response from net exports." There you have a hint at what the IMF technicians really think of a debt-trap policy that will leave Greece in hock to creditors for 150pc of GDP within three years, up from 115pc when the crisis hit. They call that a solution? In any normal situation the IMF cure for Greece would be devaluation and debt relief, allowing enough oxygene for austerity to work. But even to utter such a thought in Europe is Lèse majesté.

    True, the eurozone clocked excellent growth in the second quarter, if there is any such meaningful concept as the eurozone. What in fact occurred is that Germany surged ahead with an undervalued currency, exporting Mercedes and BMWs to China. While Spain, Italy, and Portugal are being left ever further behind in a split-level union with an overvalued currency . The data is cruelly double-edged.

    Portugal’s central bank has downgraded growth to just 0.2pc in 2011, and is expecting a stormy second half to 2011. Spanish premier Jose Luis Zapatero is already hinting at a double-dip recession. He has begun to talk of fresh stimulus for roads and infrastructure. Is Spain about to become the second country after Hungary to defy EU austerity doctrine? The plot thickens.

    Let us allow that Ireland’s mix of heroic cost-cutting and sellable exports make survival within the German currency system theoretically possible. Can we say the same about others at this far gone stage? The question for the masters of the EMU is what Viagra does Greece have to sell the world, and what can Portugal and Spain offer to close a very big gap, very fast.

  7. #7
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda


    Ireland May Buy Anglo Irish Loans at Discount of More Than 60%

    Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency, formed by the government to aid the nation’s ailing lenders, will apply a discount of more than 60 percent to a second batch of loans it’s buying from Anglo Irish Bank Corp., two people with direct knowledge of the plan said.

    The agency, known as NAMA, will acquire more than 6 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of loans from the nationalized Irish lender in the transaction, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the details haven’t been disclosed. A spokesman for NAMA said the agency wouldn’t comment until a transfer occurred. A spokesman for Dublin-based Anglo Irish didn’t return a phone call seeking comment.

    The size of the discount the agency applies to the loans will help determine how much the state has to pay to rescue Anglo, which was nationalized last year as bad debts surged. Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan said this week that the bailout may cost about 25 billion euros, the equivalent of 15 percent of the country’s economy.

    The agency applied a 55 percent discount to 10 billion euros of loans it bought from Anglo earlier this year. The government set up NAMA to purge lenders of souring real estate loans. In all, it is set to buy about 80 billion euros of assets from five lenders.

    The government took over Anglo Irish, which bankrolled many of Ireland’s property developers during the country’s building boom, after losses surged amid a slump in real-estate prices. Prices have dropped by half since peaking in 2007.

  8. #8
    Senior Member derby
    Fecha de ingreso
    21 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Y como era de esperar, después de las malas noticias de los últimos días, Irlanda vuelve a estar en el disparadero...


    Irlanda tiembla: la prima de riesgo se dispara a máximos anuales (317 PB) y su bolsa cae un 6%

    24/08/2010 13:26h Actualizado: 24/08/2010 17:50h

    La deuda irlandesa está siendo castigada por los inversores por los problemas que atraviesa el sector financiero del país, que podría ver cómo su déficit se dispara por las inyecciones que tiene que realizar para mantener a flote a los bancos con problemas. La prima de riesgo de invertir en el Tigre Celta ha vuelto a los máximos anuales de mayo.

    Peor cara mostró la bolsa irlandesa a la luz de estas nuevas incertidumbres. El ISEQ, índice general de la Bolsa de Dublín, registró un desplome del 5,8% al cierre de la sesión, arrastrada por la caída de sus valores bancarios.

    El diferencial entre la rentabilidad del bono irlandés y el ‘bund’ alemán, que se toma como referencia en Europa, se ha disparado y ha vuelto a los máximos de mayo, antes de que se aprobase el fondo de rescate de la Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional, al superar los 317 puntos básicos. La rentabilidad del bono irlandés se sitúa en el 5,29%, frente al 2,23% del alemán o al 4,03% del español.

    Pese al éxito de la subasta que realizó el emisor irlandés la semana pasada, la situación de la banca del país ha reavivado la desconfianza de los mercados, sobre todo después de que el viernes Patrick Honohan, miembro del Banco Central Europeo, dijese que “el diferencial irlandés esté más alto” de lo que le gustaría. Y se refirió al alto coste de rescatar a los bancos irlandeses.

    Además, Honohan se pronunció sobre el futuro de Anglo Irish Bank y dijo que éste tendría que resolverse pronto. Y es que la incertidumbre sobre este banco está pesando sobre las perspectivas de los inversores. La entidad ha recibido hace unos días una tercera inyección de dinero público, con lo que la cantidad que el Gobierno ha tenido que destinar a mantener el banco a flote se ha disparado hasta superar los 24.000 millones de euros.

    El problema es que Anglo Irish Bank no es el único banco en dificultades, con lo que se especula con que Dublín tenga que gastar más dinero en el sector financiero, lo que podría disparar su déficit público, que en 2009 fue del 14,6% del PIB (el objetivo es reducirlo por debajo del 3% para 2014), el más amplio de la Unión Europea.

    Según los datos de CMA Vision, la probabilidad de impago de Irlanda se incrementó en el segundo trimestre por encima del 20% y los CDS (seguros de riesgo frente al impago) para asegurar los bonos a cinco años superaron los 300 puntos por primera vez desde marzo de 2009.

    El banco malo irlandés creado para hacerse cargo de los activos tóxicos de las entidades nacionales (Nacional Asset Management Agency, NAMA) puso de manifiesto en julio los problemas de las entidades de la isla esmeralda al informar de que sólo una cuarta parte de los préstamos realizados a las entidades están produciendo algún ingreso, frente a las expectativas de que al menos un 40% lo hicieran.

  9. #9
    Member Paul Marcinkus
    Fecha de ingreso
    18 Aug, 10

    ¿Cómo se explica esto?

    Se suponía que han creado un banco "malo" que tiene todos los créditos dudosos. Entonces, si la banca está limpia, ¿por qué tiene pérdidas? O sea, que tan limpia no debía de estar.
    No entiendo nada. Nada de nada. ¿Créditos que eran buenos ya no lo son? Si un crédito ha estado al corriente de los pagos, ¿por qué deja de pagar? ¿De dónde vienen las pérdidas del Anglo Irish Bank?
    ¿Hay algo tonto que se me escapa?

  10. #10
    Senior Member Circe
    Fecha de ingreso
    28 Jul, 10

    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Lo que ha temblado hoy es la bolsa de Irlanda con superior -5%.
    Donde uno de sus máximos valores CRH( materiales de construcción) con una ponderación en la bolsa del 22%, ha caido un 16%, casi nada .


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