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  1. #11
    Senior Member Circe
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Cita Iniciado por Circe
    Lo que ha temblado hoy es la bolsa de Irlanda con superior -5%.
    Donde uno de sus máximos valores CRH( materiales de construcción) con una ponderación en la bolsa del 22%, ha caido un 16%, casi nada .

    http://www.invertia.com/noticias/tiemporeal.asp
    Y el Bund a 2,19%, de record en record, algunos están comprando muchos bonos alemanes.....y esto no puede ser bueno, alguien no se fía de alguien.

  2. #12
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Pues mira por donde que S&P ha rebajado el rating a Irlanda esta misma tarde...

    http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-do...egative-2010-8


    S&P Whacks Irish Credit Rating, Outlook Negative

    Joe Weisenthal | Aug. 24, 2010, 5:06 PM | 389 | comment 3

    The ratings agency has just downgraded the Irish outlook to AA from AA+. The outlook for the country is negative, which is notable. A lot of these downgrades have coincided with stable outlooks.

    Of course, critics will slam the ratings agency for being behind the curve, and that's totally legitimate. Irish worries have been exploding in recent weeks, with bond spreads blowing back towards old highs.

    The real lesson here does not have to do with letter grades. The story is that a country that's been an adherent of austerity is making no progress on making its government balance sheet healthy.

    And that is going to be a huge story for the rest of the year.

  3. #13
    Senior Member derby
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    The Independent subrayando los peligros de las políticas de austeridad, particularmente en el caso irlandés, no acompañadas de un crecimiento económico...

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...l-2062136.html


    Irish debt downgrade raises fears of international deflation spiral

    By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor

    Thursday, 26 August 2010

    The colossal expense of rescuing Ireland's troubled banking sector has hit the republic's international credit rating once again.

    Despite an apparently successful austerity programme and drive to reduce government borrowing, Standard & Poor's yesterday cut its credit rating on Irish sovereign debt by one notch, from AA to AA-. It reflects renewed concerns about the cost to the public finances of supporting failed banks and building societies.

    The news helped to push already unsettled international markets lower, as did disappointing news from the US real-estate sector, where new home sales dropped to an all-time low in July.

    Irish government securities were marked sharply lower, in an uncomfortable echo of the sovereign debt crises that rocked the eurozone in May.

    The additional premium that investors are demanding to hold Irish debt over its German equivalent soared to 346 basis points, the highest level for three months.

    A statement from S&P read: "The projected fiscal cost to the Irish government of supporting the Irish financial sector has increased significantly above our prior estimates.

    "We are therefore lowering our long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Ireland to 'AA-' from 'AA'.

    "The negative outlook reflects our view that a further downgrade is possible if the fiscal cost of supporting the banking sector rises further, or if other adverse economic developments weaken the government's ability to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives."

    Specifically, S&P argues that the costs associated with Anglo Irish Bank will push Ireland's net national debt toward 113 per cent of GDP in 2012, well above the European norm.

    S&P has increased its estimate of the cumulative total cost to the Irish government of providing support to the banking sector from about €80bn (£65bn) to €90bn.

    The Irish authorities reacted angrily. John Corrigan, the chief executive of the National Treasury Management Agency, said: "It's a bit like waking up the patient in the middle of an operation to tell him he's not feeling well.

    "We know the situation is pretty painful but we have to get to the end of the operation, which will be in December."

    The Irish Treasury has refused to put a final price tag on its bank rescues before the year end, because the new state-owned "bad bank" will only then have completed its purchase of toxic assets from the financial sector. Markets are unhappy with that approach.

    The S&P downgrade of Ireland to AA- levels the rating to the same as that of rival Fitch, and one lower than rival Moody's, which downgraded Ireland last month because of the growth outlook and public finances.

    The danger – also faced by Spain and Greece – is that the very austerity programmes designed to solve the budget deficit may actually make matters worse by raising unemployment and depressing tax revenues, creating a vicious deflationary circle.

    Critics of the UK's Coalition Government also point to these examples to illustrate the downside of deficit reduction. The IMF said in May that Ireland might have to make even deeper budget cuts if her growth is slower than anticipated.

    A simultaneous international fiscal retrenchment, as now, adds to the dilemmas faced by governments.

  4. #14
    Member Paul Marcinkus
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    18 Aug, 10
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Tras leer este artículo, estoy convencido de que el problema ha sido rescatar un banco fallido. Uno se puede imaginar como ante un banco quebrado, se producen presiones brutales de los que quieren salvar su dinero y privilegios, como sus acreedores. En una situación así, lo menos malo es la liquidación. No creo en el "too big to fail".

  5. #15
    Senior Member derby
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Próximo test para Irlanda... vencimientos para los bancos irlandeses este mes de septiembre por importe de 25.000 millones de euros

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d434510-b...44feabdc0.html

    Eurozone test over €25bn repayment

    By Jennifer Hughes in London and John Murray Brown in Dublin

    Published: August 30 2010 22:09 | Last updated: August 30 2010 22:09

    Irish banks are gearing up to repay more than €25bn of debt in the coming month, in what could prove an important test of investor sentiment towards the broader eurozone financial sector.

    Bond markets will begin to re-open in Europe this week after the summer hiatus. The Irish redemptions have prompted concern over whether a slew of bonds from the country, to refinance the maturing debt, could weigh on the wider market and affect investor appetite for other bank borrowing.

    “Everyone is expecting a big September and the market is already trading poorly in expectation,” one debt banker said.

    European banks have struggled to consistently access the market this year. In May and June they were virtually shut out after the eurozone sovereign debt crisis created turmoil, sending government borrowing costs among the weaker economies soaring and pushing up bank borrowing costs.

    Improving sentiment allowed a number of banks to sell bonds in July and early August, including successful issues from banks in weaker eurozone countries such as Spain.

    But increasing concerns about the health of Ireland’s economy have raised the premium it pays over benchmark German borrowing costs to record levels, which will push up the price the country’s banks must pay to refinance their debt.

    “There is a concern that there’s a lot of need to issue by Irish and Spanish banks this month [September], and when they do come to the market, what price they will have to pay,” said Rohith Chandra Rajan, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

    “Like all banks, they’ll be also looking to extend the maturity of their debt and there’s a question as to what extent they can manage that.”

    Last week Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland by one notch to AA- and left its rating on “negative outlook,” signalling further downgrades were possible.

    Robert Crossley, interest rate strategist at Citigroup, warned that the spread, or premium, Ireland paid could widen further and drag others with it.

    “The immediate potential danger is that the news feeds on itself and we see another spiral [in Europe’s peripheral economies]. The widening could easily spread in the current mood,” he said. Some European banks have been taking advantage of strong demand and low borrowing costs to sell bonds in the US, but bankers said that option was only available to the biggest institutions.

    The Irish redemptions nearly match some of the sector’s future full-year repayment commitments and are a result of the Irish government’s two-year blanket guarantee, provided in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which runs out at the end of this month.

  6. #16
    Senior Member derby
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    21 Jul, 10
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Aquí es aplicable el dicho de que cuando veas a tu vecino afeitar...

    http://www.businessinsider.com/anglo...ro-loss-2010-8

    Anglo Irish Bank Reports Massive $10.3 Billion First-Half Loss

    This was expected to be big, but the number highlights the hit that the Irish public balance sheet is taking with its support for the banks...

    Anglo Irish Bank has just posted an 8.2 Billion EUR ($10.3 Billion) first-half loss.

    According to Dow Jones, the loss includes about $6.0 billion in impairment charges and $4.4 billion in losses resulting from the transfer of bad assets to NAMA, Ireland's bank cleanup unit.

    Ireland's ISEQ index is off about 0.2%.

  7. #17
    Senior Member derby
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Irlanda ha pedido a una extensión de las garantías que forman parte del programa de rescate que se inició en 2008.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ire...lion-maturitie

    Ireland Seeks To Extend European Commission Bank Guarantees As Top Banks See €25 Billion In Maturities This Month

    Even as the melt up continues with the US economy double dipping, things in Europe are just getting plain worse by the day. First it was the disappointing series of PMI data out of the old continents, with a focus on the periphery, where pretty much every number missed expectations. Now Reuters is reporting that due to refinancing requirements to the tune of €25 billion by its two most insolvent banks Anglo Irish and Allied Irish, the banks, and the government of Ireland itself, has quietly request an extension of the European Commission bank guarantee program which bailed out the country back in 2008, and which is needed to bail it out all over again. "Ireland's guarantee, which is set to run out at the end of the year, saved its financial system from collapse when it was first issued in September 2008 and has continued to be a lifeline for lenders since the Greek crisis shut off their supply of term funding. Both Anglo Irish and Allied Irish Banks, the country's second-largest lender, have called for the guarantee to be extended and the government said it was in discussions with Brussels about its future." In other words, nothing continues to work in the European banking world, except that which is explicitly backed by the ECB, which in turn is implicitly backstopped by the Fed. If there was a reason for the melt up to surge another 3-4%, this is it.
    Aquí la noticia publicada por Reuters:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6801U020100901

    Ireland signals possible extension of bank guarantee

  8. #18
    Member juancarlosb
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    21 Jul, 10
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Creo que lo más probable es que se las extiendan, porque de lo contrario el país está abocado a la quiebra.

  9. #19
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...rs-still-loom/

    September 2, 2010, 6:00 am

    In Ireland, Dangers Still Loom

    By SIMON JOHNSON AND PETER BOONE

    Until very recently, Ireland was seen as Europe’s poster child of prudent reforms. Mr. Trichet himself highlighted Ireland as an example that Greece and other financially stricken nations should follow. His message was simple: If only Greece or Portugal or Spain would cut public wages, reduce the budget deficit and make structural reforms as Ireland had done, then growth could occur and default could be prevented.
    The ultimate result of Ireland’s bank bailout exercise is obvious: one way or another, the government will have converted the liabilities of private banks into debts of the sovereign (that is, Irish taxpayers), yet the nation probably cannot afford these debts. According to the Royal Bank of Scotland, Irish banks have debt worth 26 billion euros, or one-fifth of Ireland’s national income, coming due in the month of September alone. Ireland’s third-largest bank just announced it was likely to need 25 billion euros in total capital injections from the government (19 percent of G.N.P.), while Standard & Poor’s argues that this figure is too low. In total, the debts of Irish banks could easily result in a charge to government debt equal to one-third of G.N.P.
    Ireland had more prudent choices. It could have cut the budget deficit while also acknowledging insolvency and requiring creditors to share some of the burdens. But a strong lobby of real estate developers, the investors who bought banks’ bonds and politicians with links to the failed developments (and their bankers) prefer that taxpayers, rather than creditors, pay. The European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund share some responsibility; they advocate these unlikely programs so that European and global banks, which provided the funds to the Irish banks, do not suffer losses from such bad lending decisions.
    Under the current program, we estimate that each Irish family of four will be liable for 200,000 euros in public debt by 2015. There are only 73,000 children born into the country each year, and these children will be paying off debts for decades to come — as well as needing to accept much greater austerity than has already been put into force. There is no doubt that social welfare systems, health care and education spending will decline sharply.

    Watch for renewed emigration from a famously footloose population. If current policies continue, the calamity of the Irish banking system will lead to a much deeper recession and the consequences will be felt for decades. Watch also for further global financial disruption as this kind of deal starts to fall apart.

  10. #20
    Senior Member Circe
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    28 Jul, 10
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    Re: [BLOG]: Evolución de Irlanda

    Esto está casi arreglado

    El Anglo Irish Bank recibirá en breve 20.000 millones de euros...casi ná.

    http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia ... ieco_1/Tes

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